Victor Wembanyama tops the variance map as the least volatile early pick, with Jokic and Luka offering the most stable floor among top options. Domantas Sabonis carries the widest range, making him a high-risk early selection. Harden and Siakam present strong ceilings with bounded floors, while Durant and Williamson bring elite upside tempered by health and role risk. Desmond Bane and Deni Avdija illustrate cross-round variance, guiding late picks like Hart and Randle.