NHL teams face regression risks this season. Morgan Geekie jumps to the top line with Boston, shooting% spikes and a near-30 goal ceiling look probable but not guaranteed. Scheifele may drop from elite status as Jets’ PP changes bite his pace. Protas surprised last year, yet sustained 21% shooting is unlikely. Hagel, Stone, and Duchene all carry notable regression risk due to line shifts, health, or role changes. Expect 22–26, 30/77, ~20, and 21/40-type outputs respectively, with upside dampened by tougher matchups and shooting normalization.

Shots, lines, and power-play dynamics shape these projections. Each player’s fate hinges on role stability, opponents’ adjustments, and the persistence of high shooting rates. The piece weighs who might still carve solid fantasy value despite regression, highlighting top-line exposure, minutes, and the likelihood of less favorable matchups as seasons begin.