Toronto’s bullpen has quietly stabilized, posting a 3.98 ERA (13th in MLB) entering Wednesday and a 1.67 ERA over 37 2/3 innings in 11 games, second only to Seattle. Louis Varland is the lone reliever with more than one run allowed in that span, signaling a potential usage nuance for late innings.

Toronto’s franchise arc is back on track too: a 3,850-3,850 all-time win-loss ledger was secured with a 6-5 win over Tampa Bay. Santander is in a seven-inning rehab stint in Buffalo, 0-for-4 in the latest game and 4-for-22 overall, a sign of progress toward a potential return as the playoff push looms.

Wednesday’s four homer bets center on high-upside power to capitalize on favorable matchups, park quirks, and current form. O’Neill faces a lefty-friendly situation in Chicago, Olson rides a hot streak into a lefty-friendly matchup, Kurtz loves right-handed pitching at Fenway, and Witt Jr. hits in a wind-sensitive KC night against a HR-prone Seattle starter. The picks balance platoon splits, ballpark factors, and recent form to identify premium long-ball value.

Ongoing injury notes and bullpen usage are acknowledged, but the core edge comes from pitcher tendencies and ballpark tendencies. Shoppers should chase the best price across sportsbooks to maximize ROI on these 0.5 HR props, with a clear emphasis on lefty-lefty or righty-righty matchups and the middle innings where power tends to show up.

Stay sharp as weather, lineups, and starter changes can swing these props; the best bets come from disciplined pricing, not just raw power.