Baltimore arrives as a massive underdog in Fenway, with playoff odds barely above zero, while Boston sits solidly in the AL East playoff mix and the top wild-card spot. Monday’s game pairs Trevor Rogers against Dustin May in a key AL East matchup with real fantasy fallout. Rogers has been a revelation in 2025 for Baltimore (1.43 ERA across 11 outings) and May is back in a Boston uniform, riding momentum from six shutout innings in his last turn against Houston.

Betting lines tilt Boston, but the prop market leans toward a tight, low-hit night for Rogers. Under 5.5 hits allowed is the popular call, given Rogers’ 0.81 WHIP and .232 expected average allowed this year. May, while still not flawless, flashed form in his latest Houston start that could carry to Fenway. The Oriole right-hander may steal a surprise win or keep this tight, making Orioles +102 a tempting value play on DraftKings as BOS eyes a narrow win in a tight AL showdown.