Marlins and Red Sox square off at Fenway in a Friday set that features Sandy Alcantara on the mound for Miami against Lucas Giolito for Boston. Alcantara has to prove he can rebound after rough recent road work, while Giolito looks to keep his command tight after a less-stellar August start. Miami arrives chasing a win behind Alcantara, who has shown flashes even as his season numbers wobble, and Boston returns home after a Houston road trip in which they scored in bunches but still dropped two of three. Edward Cabrera’s recent rough night against Cleveland adds a reminder that Miami’s rotation has upsides and risks in equal measure.

Odds point to a tight, high-leverage matchup with a 9.0-run total. Miami is a slight underdog on the moneyline and a comfortable target at +1.5 on the spread, per NBC betting analytics, while the Red Sox look to capitalize on their Fenway win equity. The matchup page highlights several betting trends: Miami has won three straight at Boston, while Boston has gone over the total in its last three against Miami. The model’s projections pair with these trends to frame a night where a few value and risk-reward picks stand out for fantasy and bets.

Fantasy angles lean toward Alcantara’s ability to strand traffic and limit the long ball, while Giolito’s control underscored by recent lines could invite Miami to ride a lean, disciplined approach. Story and Wilyer Abreu represent Boston’s upside in DFS if they find favorable counts, and Cabrera’s a wild-card candidate who could snap back with cleaner mechanics. In a game that could tilt on a couple at-bats, target offensive pieces that excel in neutral counts and be ready to pivot if Boston’s lineup heat arrives early.