Mariners at Mets in Queens sets the stage Friday night for a mid-summer barometer with Castillo (SEA) facing Manaea (NYM). Seattle rides a 10-3 surge in its last 13 while New York has slumped to 1-9 over its past 10, a slope-steep decline that gnaws at fantasy angles and betting lines alike. NBC Sports projects a tight spread and an 8-run total, with the model wary of a big-moneyline move but leaning toward the over given recent offenses. In this matchup, Castillo’s strikeout upside and Manaea’s wobble-season risk create a high-variance night that could swing both DFS lineups and bettor tickets.

Expect a tense early phase with New York’s bats trying to solve Castillo, while Seattle’s lineup looks to capitalize on Manaea’s occasional control issues. The Mets have covered the Run Line in several recent home games against the Mariners, and the Under has trended in the Mariners’ last few games, but the latest data hints at a game that could breach the total or hinge on a late-inning burst. The model’s bets tilt toward Seattle +1.5 and the over, offering a path for contrarian or balanced fantasy strategies.

Odds once again show Mets as slight favorites at -120 with Seattle at +100 and a 8.0 run total. The day’s actionable angles center on Castillo’s K upside versus a slumping Mets offense and Manaea’s recent rough outing, which keeps the door open for Seattle stacks or Mets fade considerations depending on your risk tolerance and format.