The Yankees sit 3rd in the AL East with a tight one-game edge for the wild-card, and a recent 21-29 stretch over 50 games has them navigating a must-win push down the stretch. Aaron Judge has returned from a flexor strain, but durability questions linger as the offense risks another drop time if he misses more time. Oddsmakers peg New York at roughly a 79.6% shot to make the playoffs, yet the cushion over the chasers is thinner than it looks.
Schedule relief helps: the remaining slate ranks among the easiest in the league, while Texas faces a tougher road. The Yankees’ bullpen (4.24 ERA) must rebound quickly, with Devin Williams and three bullpen acquisitions trying to stabilize after the deadline. The Rangers counter with elite rotation depth in Eovaldi and deGrom, and Texas leads MLB in ERA, making the wild-card race a genuine sprint to the finish.
The chasing pack includes Cleveland and Texas as legit threats; Seattle remains a secure top seed with some cushion. If Judge stays healthy and the bullpen reclaims form, New York can turn this around; otherwise the battle for the No. 3 wild-card spot could tilt toward Rangers or Guardians as August turns to September.
Fantasy takeaway: Judge’s health and bullpen stability will determine the ceiling of any Yankee run. In deeper formats, late-inning arms and streaming spot starts could swing decisions in a tight race, while shallow leagues will hinge on Judge’s availability and the bullpen’s quick fix as the Yankees chase a postseason berth.
