Padres face a pivotal 2026 free-agent decision with Luis Arraez, a high-average leadoff threat acquired from Miami, entering the market. Arraez’s value hinges on batting average and on-base skills, but his power is limited and playoff performance will weigh heavily on any deal. San Diego must balance market price, years, and the window to win as they weigh re-signing Arraez against other roster moves, including Dylan Cease and Ryan O’Hearn.

The question isn’t just cost but fit: can Arraez anchor the lineup while preserving flexibility for a pitching staff that aims to contend with the Dodgers and others? A favorable AAV/term could keep the top of the order sharp; a steep price or long commitment could push the Padres toward a broader upgrade in the lineup and rotation.