The Mets hold a 1.5-game edge for the NL wild-card with 12 games remaining, riding a surge after Alonso’s walk-off snapped an eight-game skid. They face Padres, Nationals, Cubs and Marlins as FanGraphs pegs their postseason probability around 80%, with tiebreakers favorable vs. Giants and a tight race behind them. A 2007 reminder lingers as they chase a strong finish.

New York leans on a piggyback plan with Manaea behind Holmes, plus King and Pivetta in key series. Lindor and Alonso lead the offense as the team navigates a challenging late stretch, aiming to stack wins at Citi Field, on the road, and against division rivals to clinch a playoff berth.

Dodgers face a pivotal end to the season, weighing the value of a five-day bye against the momentum of three crucial Phillies games. The plan could rest Will Smith and tune the rotation for October, but it also risks timing disruption for hitters. A Padres surge adds urgency as NL West standings tighten and wild-card implications loom, with past finales offering a cautionary tale about scheduling and playoff paths.

Beyond the Dodgers, the Phillies hold a lead in their division, while the Padres loom 2.5 games back. If the West shifts on the final days, the path to the NLCS could hinge on who earns home-field in the wild-card round and how best to deploy top arms. Historical echoes from 1996 underscore the tension of final-day decisions and postseason exposure.