Pittsburgh Pirates ML at +105, Pirates/Cardinals OVER 8, and Miles Mikolas OVER 2.5 Earned Runs (+125) headline Thursday’s MLB Best Bets. Ashcraft starts for the Pirates in a favorable spot as St. Louis looks for offense, while the Cardinals lean on Mikolas to eat innings. The setup favors value on the Pirates and a game-script that could push the 8-run total over.

Value is found in Pittsburgh’s late-season surge (7-3 in 10) against a Cardinals squad underwhelming this stretch (4-6) with a 5.07 team ERA. The dynamic — Mikolas’ struggles, Ashcraft’s upside, and a live bullpen environment — creates multiple hedge options for fantasy and betting angles.

Fantasy takeaway: target Pirates stacks and leverage Mikolas with key bats. If you’re chasing variance, Mikolas’ risk-reward profile and the Pirates’ recent offense offer contrarian DFS plays and a potential edge in prop markets.