Three long-odds home run props headline Monday’s 11-game MLB slate: William Contreras (+400) for Milwaukee, Aaron Judge (+165) for New York, and Alec Burleson (+360) for St. Louis. Contreras has been scorching, piling six homers in 14 days with a .354 average and 1.217 OPS, and gets a favorable lefty matchup against Pittsburgh’s Andrew Heaney, who has allowed plenty of homers this season. Judge, despite a rough spell post-IL, has shown power against right-handers and carries suspect Twins bullpen water-tightness in a spot that could spark a return to form. Burleson brings power versus Colorado’s pitching and a bullpen that’s been homer-prone, giving him solid upside in a hitter-friendly setting. It’s a night where players with hot sticks and favorable matchups can swing the prop market.

Beyond these three, the slate’s dynamics—park factors, bullpen volatility, and opponent pitcher handedness—shape a few accidental homer chances. Betting angles include leveraging contrarian positions when stacks form around these lines, and sizing bets to reflect variance given a multi-game slate. Fantasy-savvy bettors should weigh weather, lineup protection, and nightly splits to maximize the upside of these homer prop plays while keeping risk in check.