Five targetable home run props headline Thunder Dan’s MLB picks for 8/13/2025. Colson Montgomery opens at +420 for over 0.5 HR as he faces the Detroit rookie Troy Melton; Matt Wallner tabs +290 for over 0.5 HR with a power-friendly matchup against the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler; Juan Soto sits at +260 in Citi Field versus Carlos Carrasco as he works to sustain recent mammoth form; Max Muncy checks in at +330 against Kyle Hendricks with a sinker-heavy plan; Brandon Lowe at +330 in his lefty-friendly Sacramento park edge against J.T. Ginn caps the slate.

Strategy factors include batted-ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather and park factors, and favorable pricing. The picks avoid the obvious slam-dunks and target longer odds to maximize upside in a round-robin format. Each prop leans on recent hot streaks, advantageous matchups, and specific pitcher tendencies to carve out value rather than chase contrarian bets.