Tanner Bibee’s 2025 season has exposed a toxic relationship with his fastball. Stuff+ for the heater has dropped to 85, leading to a major drop in usage (26.6%). In response, Bibee has leaned into the cutter and sinker, both posting elite grades (around 102+ and 110+ respectively) and delivering better results than the fastball in many counts. The sweeper has surged back as a third top offering, giving Bibee a viable 3-pitch mix that offsets the underperforming heater.
Two-strike struggles with the fastball persist, with whiffs collapsing to a career-low rate and opponents hammering the pitch in 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 counts. The piece highlights a June 26 Toronto jam where a hanging sweeper opened the door to a two-RBI single, underscoring the need for Bibee to abandon the old ex-fastball more often. The takeaway for fantasy players is clear: Bibee’s value hinges on embracing cutter/sinker dominance and limiting the 4-seam fastball in two-strike scenarios.
In practice, Bibee’s path mirrors several peers who effectively diversified from their fastballs. If he continues to deploy the sinker and cutter as primary pressure pitches and keeps the changeup as a secondary option, his fantasy ceiling could rise again, especially in favorable matchups where the sinker plays up against ground-ball-prone lineups.
