Milwaukee is the live underdog against Chicago in a rare five-game set, but recent form tilts in MIL’s favor. Milwaukee’s offense has surged since the All-Star Break (.823 OPS, second in MLB in wRC+), while Chicago’s numbers have cooled (.669 OPS, 26th in wRC+). Shota Imanaga has struggled versus the Brewers this season, allowing nine hits and five earned runs in 10.2 innings across two starts, giving MIL a genuine upset path at +116.

In the other tilt, St. Louis visits Tampa Bay in an interleague affair with a 8.5 total line. Both offenses have scuffled since the break (Cardinals 27th in wRC+, Rays near the bottom in OPS), making the UNDER an appealing theme. Sonny Gray (4.30 ERA) and Joe Boyle (4.68 ERA) should keep things from spiraling, lending conviction to the total and hinting at sneaky fantasy value if bullpen leverage tilts late.

Bottom line: the Brewers’ upset potential and the Cardinals–Rays under are the standout plays, with the Imanaga vs MIL dynamic and the broader post-break offensive slide guiding the bets. Monitor line movement and bullpen usage for fantasy pivots and late-game value.