Paul Skenes, the Pirates' ace and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, will take the mound for his fourth start of the young season against the Washington Nationals. With a record of 1-1, Skenes boasts a 3.44 ERA and 0.82 WHIP through three starts. The Pirates are struggling, currently sitting at 5-11 and on a three-game losing streak, while the Nationals hold a slight edge at 6-9 after losing their last two games.

Starting for the Nationals is rookie Brad Lord, who recently delivered a strong performance against the Dodgers. Despite the Nationals being swept by the Marlins over the weekend, they previously took two of three from the powerful Dodgers. Sports betting models suggest there is value in the Nationals money line at +184, especially considering the betting interest surrounding Skenes and the Pirates. The model projects the Nationals have a 40% chance to win, slightly above their implied odds.