The Mets hold a 1.5-game edge for the NL wild-card with 12 games remaining, riding a surge after Alonso’s walk-off snapped an eight-game skid. They face Padres, Nationals, Cubs and Marlins as FanGraphs pegs their postseason probability around 80%, with tiebreakers favorable vs. Giants and a tight race behind them. A 2007 reminder lingers as they chase a strong finish.

New York leans on a piggyback plan with Manaea behind Holmes, plus King and Pivetta in key series. Lindor and Alonso lead the offense as the team navigates a challenging late stretch, aiming to stack wins at Citi Field, on the road, and against division rivals to clinch a playoff berth.