Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off a tight Falcons–Buccaneers tilt, with ESPN predicting another razor-close showdown. TB has a slight edge on average—about a touchdown per Moody and Walder, while FPI places TB as a 54% favorite by roughly two points. The buzz includes Emeka Egbuka and the Bucs’ offense, Haason Reddick’s test for Penix Jr., and Atlanta’s rookie defenders, plus injury shuffles on Atlanta’s line. The Falcons hold a 32-31 all-time edge; TB has won four NFC South titles in a row but Atlanta swept last year.

The clash also features the rookies and schemes that could swing fantasy upside in Week 1, with Egbuka's debut and Reddick's rushes shaping both sides’ lines and backfields. Penix Jr. must manage a shaken protection, while TB leans on its rookie weapon to spark a needed offensive uplift. Expect a hard-fought opener that could redefine early-season fantasy projections in a league-wide, high-variance game.

Penix Jr. opens Week 1 for Atlanta against Tampa Bay, a high-stakes debut in a Chargers-strong NFC South opener that will shape the division’s early narrative. Local buzz runs hotter than pundits’ lukewarm take, and Penix’s Week 1 test doubles as a gauge for Atlanta’s new offense under pressure to rebound since 2016. Expect a measured attack that leans on quick throws and Mooney’s speed if he suits up, with Wilkinson anchoring the blind side as Penix tries to shake the nerves with a crisp debut.

The clash also carries rival storylines: TB’s recent NFC South dominance versus ATL’s rebuild, the home-town angle for Penix, and early-season chemistry-building as Atlanta pushes to establish a floor for fantasy lines in 2025. The kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium sets the stage for a potential divisional jolt if Penix clicks early, especially with Mooney and a stabilized offensive line providing the requisite protection and space.

Elijah Wilkinson will start at right tackle for Atlanta in Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay, taking over for Kaleb McGary who landed on IR. The Falcons stuck with a veteran edge option, despite adding Michael Jerrell in a trade, to protect the quarterback and stabilize the line for a season opener against a disruptive Bucs front. Jalon Walker is on track to play on defense, while Darnell Mooney remains day-to-day with a shoulder injury, potentially limiting options for the passing game.

Penix Jr. enters Atlanta as the Falcons’ undisputed starter, but Kaleb McGary’s season-ending injury tests the new-look protection around him. Norton is out 6-8 weeks, Wilkinson stepped in, and Atlanta added Michael Jerrell from Seattle to shore up the right side. The line’s shift shapes Penix’s Week 1 upside and fantasy value as the Falcons lean on a potentially elevated passing attack if the protection holds up.

The roster move cadence and the trade acquisition signal a heavy emphasis on safeguarding Penix while the rest of the offense adapts to new blocking realities. Expect early-line movement on Falcons pass-heavier concepts, with Jerrell and Wilkinson likely sharing snaps as McGary’s replacement grows into the role.