The Buccaneers’ Over/Under 9.5 wins at -110 is a great value play in 2025. Tampa Bay is being underestimated after a surprising 2024 run, but the offense remains capable of carrying the club, especially with Baker Mayfield at the helm and a solid line protecting him. Mayfield has four strong seasons as a starter when healthy, and the surrounding cast—Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, a deep receiver corps, and a productive ground game—gives him multiple paths to real fantasy and betting upside. While the playbook shifts with Liam Coen out, Mayfield has proven he can adapt and still operate efficiently in high-pressure situations. Should the offense stay cohesive, the Bucs can hit double-digit wins even if a few defensive flaws pop up.

Defensive concerns aren’t catastrophic; the unit is middle-of-the-pack but enough to let the offense dictate terms. Tampa Bay’s schedule strengthens the case: NFC South remains soft, six divisional games are highly winnable, and several non-division tests hinge on home games. If Mayfield stays decisive and the offensive line continues to give him time, Tampa can win games in multiple ways—through explosive passing and steady ground production. A 10- or 11-win season is well within reach, making the 9.5 line one of the sharper value bets of the NFL offseason.