Milwaukee is the live underdog against Chicago in a rare five-game set, but recent form tilts in MIL’s favor. Milwaukee’s offense has surged since the All-Star Break (.823 OPS, second in MLB in wRC+), while Chicago’s numbers have cooled (.669 OPS, 26th in wRC+). Shota Imanaga has struggled versus the Brewers this season, allowing nine hits and five earned runs in 10.2 innings across two starts, giving MIL a genuine upset path at +116.

In the other tilt, St. Louis visits Tampa Bay in an interleague affair with a 8.5 total line. Both offenses have scuffled since the break (Cardinals 27th in wRC+, Rays near the bottom in OPS), making the UNDER an appealing theme. Sonny Gray (4.30 ERA) and Joe Boyle (4.68 ERA) should keep things from spiraling, lending conviction to the total and hinting at sneaky fantasy value if bullpen leverage tilts late.

Bottom line: the Brewers’ upset potential and the Cardinals–Rays under are the standout plays, with the Imanaga vs MIL dynamic and the broader post-break offensive slide guiding the bets. Monitor line movement and bullpen usage for fantasy pivots and late-game value.

Thursday night in Tampa pits Sonny Gray against Joe Boyle in a nationally watched MLB matchup. The Cardinals (63-65) head to George M. Steinbrenner Field to face the Rays (61-66) with the latest lines showing the Cardinals at -121 on the moneyline, Rays at +101, and a total of 8 runs. The Rays seek to halt a skid after being swept by the Yankees and dropping a game to the Giants, while the Cardinals try to build on snapping a five-game slide with a win in their last outing.

The matchup features Gray (11-6, 4.30 ERA) on the mound for St. Louis and Boyle (1-2, 4.68 ERA) for Tampa Bay. The model’s betting lean tilts toward the over 8.0 and a Rays cover at +1.5, while the moneyline is left aside by the projection. Expectations center on Gray’s control and Boyle’s ability to limit hard contact, especially against lineups that have recently shown inconsistencies.

For fantasy and bets, Gray’s track record as a steady, high-floor innings eater matters, while Boyle’s volatility could swing the early run-scoring. The Cardinals’ offense has been uneven on the road, and Tampa Bay’s offense has shown bursts but also droughts. First pitch is 7:35 PM EST, with updates streaming on NBC’s platforms and in-game pages that adjust with every out. This game is a microcosm of two slumping offenses vs two pitchers who can swing the balance with a single sequence.

In sum, expect a grind-it-out night in a game with meaningful implications for both fantasy rosters and betting boards. The NBC model prioritizes the close nature of the tilt, the undercurrents of recent form, and the park’s dynamics, offering a thoughtful lens for bettors and fantasy managers alike.

Rays at Giants on Friday night features Joe Boyle against Landen Roupp in Oracle Park. Tampa Bay (59-63) arrives off a series win over Oakland and has faded from playoff contention, while San Francisco (59-62) rides a five-game skid into the homestand. Odds tilt slightly toward the Giants, but the game shapes as a lower-scoring, pitcher-driven affair in a ballpark that suppresses offense. Our take for fantasy and betting centers on the two probables: Boyle (1-2, 3.82 ERA) and Roupp (7-6, 3.11 ERA), with the total set at 8 and the over a real upside argument tonight.

The matchup leans on bullpen usage and run-suppressing environment, with Rays likely hoping Boyle can navigate a mid-week rust against a Giants lineup looking to snap out of its funk. Roupp has shown flashes of efficiency (last start: 0 ER, 4 hits, 6 K), but he faces a Tampa Bay offense that can cluster hits in bursts. The story here is pitcher's duel vibes, late-inning leverage, and how the park and recent form tilt the balance toward the under and a narrow spread play.

Cal Raleigh delivered MLB-leading power, belting his 44th homer as Seattle defeated Tampa Bay 7-4 and stretched its winning streak to six—the longest in the American League. Raleigh’s three-run shot in the third capped a crucial swing after YOUNG’s earlier walk set the table for a bullpen-night that held the Rays to five hits. Julio Rodríguez supplied a two-homer night, including a 436-foot blast in the first, lifting Seattle’s offense and keeping the club within a half-game of Houston in the AL West. The victory capped a standout performance from the offense while Seattle’s pitching, though imperfect, managed the late innings to preserve the win.

The key moment came when Brandon Lowe started the Rays’ scoring with a homer, and Junior Caminero later added a three-run shot, but Seattle answered repeatedly. Rodríguez’s power complemented Raleigh’s season-long onslaught, as the Mariners kept pressuring opponents while their bullpen closed out the final frames. J.P. Crawford even showcased a marathon 17-pitch at-bat against Mason Englert that underscored Seattle’s resilience and depth.

Up next, Seattle hopes to keep the momentum as it chases within striking distance of the division lead; Tampa Bay will look to rebound as the two teams finish their series. Fantasy note: Raleigh’s 44 HR pace makes him an anchor at catcher, while Rodríguez remains a cornerstone contributor with multi-homer upside.

Brady Singer of the Cincinnati Reds has showcased a resurgence in recent outings, notably striking out 10 batters against the Atlanta Braves. With a 4.60 ERA overall, his last eight appearances have been characterized by a 3.20 FIP and an impressive 11.2 K/9 rate. While his sinker and slider remain his most utilized pitches, he has begun incorporating a cutter, which may provide a new dimension to his approach on the mound. However, concerns linger about his groundball rate, which has significantly dipped in 2025.

Meanwhile, Joe Boyle of the Tampa Bay Rays has also caught attention after delivering a shutout against the Dodgers. Despite past control issues, Boyle's fastball and slider have been effective, with a notable velocity that could translate into a solid strikeout rate if he can maintain command. Lastly, New York Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler displayed promise in a recent start, but inconsistencies raise questions about his reliability in fantasy leagues.