As the Chicago Cubs face off against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium, both teams come into the game with contrasting performances. The Cubs, holding a 66-48 record, recently lost two out of three games against the Reds, while the Cardinals, at 58-58, just secured a series win against the Dodgers. With the Cubs leading the season series 4-3, they also boast a stronger second-half record. Starting pitcher Matthew Boyd (11-4, 2.34 ERA) aims to capitalize on his last outing, where he allowed no earned runs and struck out eight. Meanwhile, Michael McGreevy (3-2, 5.08 ERA) seeks to improve after a rough start against the Dodgers.

The betting odds reflect Cubs' advantage with a moneyline of -153 against the Cardinals' +128. The spread is set at Cubs -1.5 with a total of 8.0 runs. Key betting trends favor the Cubs, supported by their recent success against teams with poorer records. However, the Cardinals have struggled at home, failing to cover the run line in four of their last five games. Insights from the model suggest a moneyline play on the Cubs and an over on the game total.