Cleveland's postseason odds sit at about 5.1% after the deadline and the gambling investigation sidelined Clase and Ortiz. Bieber and Sewald were moved, leaving the rotation thinner and the bullpen thinner as well, yet the Guardians surged to 9-3 in August before offense cooled again. The remaining schedule is middling in difficulty, but the margin for error is razor-thin in a crowded AL wild-card push.

The path rests on four pivots: Bibee returning to form atop the rotation, the bullpen absorbing Clase's absence with Smith, Herrin and Gaddis stepping up, Kwan reclaiming All-Star-level impact at the top, and Naylor and Arias lifting the bottom of the order to give Ramirez a clear runway.