Houston missed the playoffs for the first time in years, setting the stage for a pivotal winter. Framber Valdez looms as the crown jewel of any Astros offseason, with free agency a real possibility that could reshape Houston’s rotation.

Valdez logged a 13-11 mark in 2025 with a 3.66 ERA across 31 starts and 192 innings, fanning 187 while issuing 68 walks. His Sept. 25 outing versus Oakland—seven innings, one run, 10 strikeouts—was a reminder of his upside as a workhorse ace on the open market.

Three teams surfaced as plausible fits: the Cubs, Mets and Orioles. Each would covet a top-of-rotation arm to anchor a postseason push in 2026. Valdez’s clubhouse drama and a quirky incident with Cesar Salazar aren’t helping the Astros’ bid to keep him, and any destination would pursue a contender-ready ace in a thin free-agent market.

Houston’s offseason plan centers on preserving core stability while addressing two free-agent questions. Framber Valdez and Victor Caratini are the only consequential free agents from the current roster, with Valdez anchoring the rotation and Caratini handling catching. The rest of the star core—Altuve, Alvarez, Peña, and Brown among others—remains under team control for the near term, creating room to balance extensions, arbitration, and payroll without a full rebuild.

Beyond Valdez and Caratini, the horizon features a mix of arbitration-eligible depth and aging or longer-term contracts. Key decisions will revolve around how aggressively Houston retains or replaces pieces like Abreu, Dubón, Urías, and McCullers, while mapping out long-term commitments for a championship window that runs through the late 2020s and into 2030s via extensions and option structure.

Seattle overtook Houston as Cal Raleigh powered the Mariners and Andres Muñoz slammed the door. Houston’s big-money gamble on Josh Hader yielded 28 saves but uneven late-inning impact, while Framber Valdez faded in September. Yordan Alvarez never found rhythm, shrinking the middle of the order, and Alex Bregman left for Boston, creating leadership gaps. Jeremy Peña emerged as the franchise’s new centerpiece, with Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton awaiting big-league time. Dana Brown faces a measured winter reset.