Boston rides into Daikin Park for a pivotal three-game set against Houston, with Garrett Crochet taking the ball for the Red Sox in opener against Cristian Javier, who is returning from Tommy John surgery. The betting playbook leans Boston’s way, especially with Crochet’s AL-leading ERA (2.24) and elite strikeout rate, as the series opens in a spot where Boston’s edge is more about containment than domination. The matchup is shallow in offense but rich in small-sample drama as both teams lean on bullpen depth and tactical plate discipline.

Roman Anthony stands out as a young bat with recent hot swing metrics, drawing a plus-money prop on over 1.5 bases, while Jeremy Peña owns a favorable track record against Crochet and is priced to collect a hit in the same game. Peña’s platoon splits show solid output against both handedness, and Crochet’s recent contact allowed could buoy Peña’s odds. The push to tie five innings and force the game deeper makes the 5-inning line a plausible anchor for DFS and fantasy bets, especially with Crochet eyeing another quality start and Javier’s post-TJ return sparking intrigue.

In fantasy terms, the angle hinges on Crochet’s efficiency and Pena’s contact-heavy approach, with Anthony offering upside in a favorable Houston park. Expect a tense early rhythm, with the Red Sox eyeing an early lead and the Astros aiming to shake off rust in Javier’s return. The game stays tight through five, creating approachable value on short- to mid-range fantasy bets and mid-game live-betting opportunities as the narrative unfolds.