The Nationals visit Kansas City for a matchup that hinges on whiffs and velocity. Cade Cavalli returns with the kind of swing-and-miss stuff that turned heads in his 2025 debut, flashing velocity near the triple digits and four-pitch command. Bailey Falter counters for the Royals, a right-hander whose xBA and xERA suggest some regression is due but who benefits from depth in a shallow KC bullpen. The betting lens centers on Cavalli’s over 3.5 strikeouts prop, a line that looks attainable given KC’s late-season swing-and-miss dynamics and Cavalli’s raw stuff.

The Royals, 58-60 and solidly perched in the AL Central, have shown a penchant for striking out, even as contact rates were solid earlier in the season. Kansas City’s bullpen has been taxed lately, with Estevez, Erceg and Zerpa throwing on consecutive days, amplifying the path to late-game vulnerability. Washington has been inconsistent of late, scoring just 14 runs across five games, but a 17-hit outburst in their latest win signals life. The Nationals have also covered the run line in six straight road games versus KC, a nuance that adds a playful edge to the pick.

With Cavalli carrying a debut halo and Falter facing a lineup prone to chasing, expect a close, high-variance game where late-inning runs could tilt the result. Washington’s ability to stay in the game and possibly steal it late keeps the door open for a +128 return on the Nationals in a venue where run prevention and bullpen dynamics could decide the outcome. This one is framed for fantasy-savvy bettors who chase per-inning velocity and bullpen matchup edges.