Contreras over 0.5 HR at +300, Pasquantino over 0.5 HR at +475, Freeland over 0.5 HR at +650, Buxton over 0.5 HR at +280 headline Friday’s MLB HR prop slate. Value plays bend toward favorable righty matchups, weather, and park factors to beat the odds, not chase the obvious. Shop for the best line to juice round-robin upside.

Contreras faces Littell, a pitcher with trouble handling right-handed power; Pasquantino has shown power against righties and Paddack has leaked homers recently; Freeland thrives against right-handers while Gallen has allowed hard contact; Buxton’s big righty power and Cortes’ lefty splits tip the scales. These picks hinge on plus-money outcomes and volatility in a large slate.

Stay agile with lineup updates and weather; small line movements can turn these long-shot bets into meaningful round-robin gains, especially when multiple picks connect in a single card.