St. Louis hosts Pittsburgh in a pivotal NL Central showdown as STL sits 65-68, 6.5 games out of the NL wild-card with 29 to play. Alec Burleson delivered a two-out ninth-inning homer to spark a 7-6 win, while Pittsburgh answered with an 8-3 victory on Tuesday. Sonny Gray starts for the Cardinals; Carmen Mlodzinski goes for the Pirates. The SportsLine model pegs Pirates +1.5 as the likely outcome in a close, grind-heavy night for fantasy managers.

Gray (12-6, 4.33) is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts versus Pittsburgh this season and has allowed three runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Mlodzinski (3-7, 3.89) will be making his 11th start, after facing STL twice earlier this year (1-0, three runs, eight Ks in 9 2/3 IP). Pirates have won five of six, adding intrigue for DFS and prop bets on a tight, late-inning affair.

Betting note: Pirates +1.5 at -147 in 68% of SportsLine simulations. This one could hinge on bullpen usage late if Gray holds the Pirates down, while Burleson’s late-inning power keeps STL within striking distance. Fantasy managers should weigh staged stacks and late-inning opportunities in what could be a high-leverage, late-season tilt.