Milwaukee invades American Family Field riding an 11-game win streak and the NL’s best record, aiming to extend its dominance over the Pirates in a pivotal August matchup. The Brewers sit as a heavy favorite (-192 moneyline) with a 7.0 total as Mitch Keller (Pirates) matches up with Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) in a clash that could shape the NL Central race down the stretch. NBC Sports’ model leans Brewers on the moneyline and favors the over, citing Milwaukee’s current form and Woodruff’s home-leaning excellence.

Keller enters with a 5-10 mark and a 3.86 ERA, coming off a 3.18 earned run turn with three walks and three strikeouts across five innings. Woodruff, 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA, punched out eight in his last outing, continuing his season-long patience and efficiency. The model factors in park effects, recent performance, and weather for a relative confidence edge on Milwaukee’s side, while noting the Pirates’ recent slide (#0-4 in their last four).

Trends point toward Brewers’ continuing home success (17 of 20 at home with Woodruff starting) and a run-line edge against Pittsburgh. Woodruff’s 1.96 ERA over his last five home starts reinforces Milwaukee’s home dominance; Keller will need to limit the big hits and pitch efficiently to keep this close. Fantasy players should weigh Milwaukee’s batting order depth and Woodruff’s at-home form when setting lineups.