Graham Mertz’s Texans preseason showing in Week 2 was brief and quiet: two completions for one yard across three series, sandwiched by a punt and a kneel-down. Houston’s QB pecking order remains Stroud, Mills and Slovis, leaving the former Badger with a clear roster battle entering the Aug. 23 finale against Detroit. The Texans won 20-3, but Mertz’s three drives did little to alter the path of a six-round pick fighting for a 53-man spot. Fantasy takeaways: don’t count on Mertz contributing in 2025 unless injuries create a late-season opening; his best path remains as a practice-squad developmental option if he clears waivers.

For dynasty managers, the narrative centers on depth-chart leverage more than immediate upside. Stroud’s early hold on the starter’s role, Mills’ veteran presence, and Slovis’s developing upside keep Mertz on the outside looking in, though any dramatic shift in roster-building or in-game opportunity could change his odds quickly.

Houston’s overhaul centers on Stroud and Anderson, whose arrival under DeMeco Ryans has redefined the Texans’ trajectory. Stroud’s breakout moments in the 2022 playoff landscape foreshadowed a franchise quarterback who thrives under pressure, while Anderson’s relentless motor anchors a defense built to contend. The 2023 draft capital—kept when Houston stayed at No. 2 and then jumped to No. 3—paved the way for a roster around its two stars. The result: 22 wins across two seasons and playoff wins that signal a true turnaround, with Stroud and Anderson as the program’s cornerstones and a path toward a Super Bowl someday. The surrounding class—Dell, Scruggs, Horton, To’oTo’o—adds depth and complementary talent that could sustain this rise. Houston’s the favorite in the AFC South entering 2025, but health and a sturdy line will determine how soon the ceiling is reached.

Aireontae Ersery flashed as Houston’s left tackle in his NFL debut, drawing early praise from Baldy for length and hand usage as he faced Vikings edge Dallas Turner. The Texans’ 10-play opening drive culminated in a Mills-to-Berrios TD, signaling both a fresh start for an overhauled line and a path toward fewer sacks after last year’s 52 allowed. The piece also outlines Houston’s offseason OL overhaul, including the culling of Tunsil and Mason and the addition of Brown, Robinson, Tomlinson and Ingram, and frames Ersery as a potential cornerstone of the rebuild with immediate fantasy relevance should protection improve.

As fantasy-specific takeaways, the breakdown suggests Stroud and Mills could reap the benefits of better pass protection, while Braxton Berrios could see steadier targets in a more competent offense. Ogunbowale’s involvement on the opening drive indicates a versatile backfield that could diversify Houston’s weekly floor and ceiling. Ersery’s performance against a first-round Vikings rookie also provides a blueprint for how soon the Texans’ line might stabilize and unlock deeper playmaking from the unit surrounding the rookie.

Houston faces a pivotal preseason test as DeMeco Ryans pushes for clarity in a crowded 53-man roster. Saturday’s home game against Carolina at NRG Stadium should reveal who can truly separate in a high-stakes competition for snaps, especially with a backfield and receiving corps under intense scrutiny. Ryans stressed progress in the 48-hour window since Thursday’s joint practice, signaling that players who can correct and cut loose will separate themselves from the pack.

In the backfield, Nick Chubb is expected to man the lead if Dameon Pierce isn’t cleared, while the potential return of Pierce would turn Houston’s rush game into a committee dynamic that could temper fantasy upside in Week 1. The receiving group is equally compelling, with John Metchie III, Braxton Berrios, Justin Watson, and Xavier Hutchinson squaring off for slots behind Nico Collins. Up front, Fisher’s performance at tackle and Smith’s corner reps will shape the Texans’ depth roles and, by extension, early-season fantasy value. Carolina’s Xavier Legette adds another wrinkle, testing Houston’s depth as both teams eye a strong finish to camp.

Bottom line: this game isn’t about final stats but about who can execute assignments, finish plays, and command trust from Mills and Ryans. The result will influence Houston’s Week 1 plan, the distribution of targets among pass-catchers, and the likelihood that rookies or veterans emerge as week-to-week fantasy contributors as the roster settles in.