Five RB busts to fade in 2025: Barkley, Conner, Mixon, Kamara, and Montgomery. Barkley’s monster 2024 workload (482 touches incl. postseason) heightens regression and injury risk even behind a strong line in Philadelphia. Conner enters age 30 with high-touch year history and whispers of increased committee risk in Arizona. Mixon carries injury questions and an unsettled Texans OL. Kamara’s elite past clashes with steep metric declines and a Saints offense in flux. Montgomery’s heavy use could yield diminished efficiency if Gibbs steps forward in Detroit. Fantasy gamers should target safer backs and be wary of top-heavy RB bets this year.

Rivals may seize opportunity by pivoting to Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, or other high-floor options rather than chasing volume with Barkley or Kamara. This fade-oriented view emphasizes durability, age curves, and line/coach changes that could erode 2025 upside. The piece also underscores evaluating backfields where incumbents face real competition or structural changes that shift workload away from a single anchor back.

Round-by-round cautions reshape this fantasy draft. McCaffrey’s Achilles/knee background and workload questions push him from must-pick to avoid. Brock Bowers looks tempting but TE early is misallocated value. Kamara’s decline, Wilson’s Jets offense, and Philly’s pass volume spark a risk-off approach at their spots. Smith’s WR2 status in a run-heavy Philly and Godwin’s timeline add more landmines. Late-rounds favor safer backs or high-upside plays, and kickers in round nine are a sunk cost.

In aggregate, the guide urges managers to pivot from high-risk early selections toward steadier floor options, while reserving bold bets for late-round upside options or proven veterans with clear path to targets. The takeaway: resist overpay for known risk, map workload shifts, and exploit value in rounds where safer roles or clearer roles emerge.

Mixon is on the Non-Football Injury list for the start of 2025 with Houston, guaranteeing at least four missed games and a murky return timeline. Fantasy managers face uncertainty as the Texans navigate depth in the backfield and question Mixon’s role upon any possible return. Collins’ midseason absence and Houston’s quiet camp add to the intrigue, making Mixon a risky late-round target rather than a clear fantasy foundation.

Last season Mixon produced 1,016 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs on 245 carries, plus 309 receiving yards on 36 catches, a solid RB2 profile on paper. Yet age, efficiency declines, and injury history cloud the ceiling. If he returns, workload may be diminished in a Texans’ run-heavy framework, pushing him toward a high-variance stash in drafts.

Ryans says the 53-man squad is really good, with roster moves still possible as the season nears. The Texans will lean on a heavy defensive-line rotation (10 DL) to keep players fresh, and Togiai earned his spot through relentless work and consistency.

Mixon’s injury status is day by day, while Stroud and Anderson are highlighted as leaders. Graham Mertz showed upside as a third quarterback. Strong OL depth and veteran presence underpin a roster built to contend against the Rams in Week 1, emphasizing leadership, depth, and protection of players’ privacy around injuries.