Houston hosts Tampa Bay in Week 2 Monday Night Football as C.J. Stroud faces Baker Mayfield with both teams chasing their first win. Key receivers are sidelined: Christian Kirk for Houston and Chris Godwin for Tampa Bay, forcing bigger roles for Nico Collins, Emeka Egbuka, and Mike Evans.

Houston sits as a 2.5-point favorite with a 42.5 over/under. The SportsLine projection model, boasting a long run of accurate top picks, leans toward the over and toward one side of the spread in a game that could hinge on rookie gains from Collins and Egbuka and Mayfield’s connection with Evans despite the injuries.

The narrative centers on fantasy relevance: Collins' bounce-back prospects, Egbuka’s emergence, and Fairbairn’s kicking in a likely tight contest. The model’s track record adds weight to the bet and lineup calls for managers seeking value in a game with multiple injury-driven implications.