Sunday’s MLB home run props land with clear value beyond the obvious targets. Tyler Soderström checks in at +460 for 0.5 HR, riding a recent power surge against lefties and Camden Yards’ favorable park factors for left-handed hitters. Kerry Carpenter sits at +425 for 0.5 HR, facing a pitcher with a troubling LHB track record and a high HardHit% tilt that suggests reasonable odds to go deep. Mickey Moniak tilts toward +370 in a hot-weather spot in Colorado’s new environs, where the ball travels, and Mike Yastrzemski sits around +TBD for 0.5 HR with a favorable early matchup. The approach leans into batted-ball metrics, splits, weather, and park context to chase round-robin upside rather than just the chalk plays.

Value-focused bets hinge on favorable odds shopping across sportsbooks, with a round-robin mindset amplifying upside when a couple of these value plays land. The slate highlights multiple lefty-righty nuances and park factors that can swing a homer or two, so the bets pair well with DFS and multi-leg betting. In this setup, the four core bets anchor a broader strategy, with Langeliers and others offered as solid backups when the ball is in the right zone. Odds are FanDuel-centered and subject to change, so price discovery matters as much as the matchup itself.

The Houston Astros have shown resilience since the All-Star break despite a shaky start, having lost their first two games against the Seattle Mariners. They have bounced back with three consecutive wins, showcasing their depth and talent as they prepare for the series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Brandon Walter, with a 3.66 ERA, will take the mound for Houston, facing off against Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 4.82 ERA.

In their last game, the Astros displayed strong defensive plays, which proved pivotal in securing victories. Rookie Brice Matthews has been a standout, hitting three home runs in just two games, injecting energy into the lineup. However, the Astros will be without Isaac Paredes for an extended period due to a hamstring injury, and Lance McCullers Jr. has been placed on the injured list due to a blister. This series will test the Astros' depth as they navigate through these injuries while aiming for a playoff spot.

As we dive into the latest pitcher developments, Tyler Glasnow of the Los Angeles Dodgers emerges as a notable figure following his return from the injured list. His recent performances reveal a significant uptick in sinker usage, reflecting a strategic shift in approach. Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert from the Seattle Mariners has been showcasing a refined fastball-grip technique leading to improved strikeout rates. Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins is gradually introducing a curveball, while Brandon Pfaadt of the Arizona Diamondbacks is experimenting with a cutter alongside his established pitches.

The St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix, both teams battling for a crucial series win amidst struggling performances lately. The Cardinals, with a record of 51-46, have won only one out of their last four series, but they did sweep the Diamondbacks earlier this season, bringing a glimmer of hope. Their starting pitcher, Andre Pallante, holds a 5-5 record with a 4.49 ERA. Conversely, Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona, boasts a 9-6 record and a 5.16 ERA, showing some resilience of late.

Both teams find themselves on a similar trajectory, with the Diamondbacks at 47-50 and slightly behind in the race for the National League Wild Card spot. This matchup is critical as the Cardinals look to close the gap on the Wild Card, sitting 1.5 games back. The betting odds favor the Diamondbacks at -130, but the Cardinals are backed by the modeling tools with a recommended play on the moneyline. With the potential for runs, the over on the total of 8 runs seems a plausible bet as well.