Spencer Strider vs Cubs: under 6.5 strikeouts. Strider's strikeouts have cooled lately, with four or fewer Ks in four of his last five starts, and Chicago's patient approach keeps the K total in check. That dynamic makes the under a sharp play on a slate where variance is limited.

Yordan Alvarez over 0.5 home runs vs Bieber: Alvarez has heated up, piling hits in a three-hit stretch and he carries power upside against Bieber in a pennant race-driven matchup. The small samples against Bieber suggest a homer chance is real, adding upside to a hot Houston offense.

Zac Gallen over 17.5 outs vs Giants: Gallen has pitched to a high floor with six straight quality starts and should reach six innings, yielding 18+ outs in a tight race context with Arizona needing every outs possible.