Buffalo has carved out a rock-solid floor over the last five seasons, winning at least 11 games each year. The over 12.5 wins at +132 hinges on that reliability, plus a schedule that leans friendly with a few marquee tests at home. The Bills open with Baltimore and host Kansas City later, with Week 17’s date versus Philadelphia shaping the playoff landscape. Buffalo’s goal is a top seed, which would almost certainly demand 13 wins, making the over a plausible, high-upside play.

Josh Allen remains the engine: a top-tier passer who thrives behind one of the league’s better O-lines, able to extend plays and still threaten downfield. The defense, while not required to be elite, has shown years of timely stops. All told, the combination of durable floor, elite quarterback play, and a schedule that rewards home-field advantage makes buffalo-bills over 12.5 wins a compelling wager for the season.