Kyle Shanahan finally breaks through as a big underdog, guiding the 49ers to a 26-23 upset of the Rams as injuries thinned San Francisco’s depth. The spread swung from SF as +3 to Rams favored by 8.5 late in the week, and Shanahan treated the line movement as fuel. Mac Jones revealed Shanahan was visibly frustrated by the ever-growing underdog tag. San Francisco snapped a long drought in 7+ point underdog wins, a run that stretched back to 2011 and a Harbaugh-era victory over Philadelphia.

The win came with Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall sidelined, yet Jones threw for 342 yards and two TDs, turning the upset into a statement. The 49ers had been 0-11 in such games since 2017—and 22 straight as 7+ point underdogs before this triumph—making this upset their biggest as a betting underdog since Harbaugh’s 2011 finish against the Eagles.

In a season that often tests depth, SF’s resilience and Shanahan’s psychology-sharp approach to spreads provided a blueprint: leverage doubt, lean on a flexible game plan, and seize the opportunity when the odds swing against you.

Alfred Collins’ goal-line strip and a sturdy late stand by the 49ers’ defense propelled San Francisco to a 26-23 win at Los Angeles, validating a defense-first blueprint even with a dented offense. The play preserved a potential turn-point moment after a shaky red-zone sequence and three straight runs to bleed clock kept the Rams out of reach in regulation.

SF moved to 4-1 atop the NFC West, buoyed by rookie contributors on defense and the prospect of healthier weapons returning—Jennings, Pearsall, and Kittle—while injuries continue to test the depth. The win could quiet the draft-grading chatter and hint that the Niners’ playmakers, not the picks, will carry them forward for fantasy rosters in the coming weeks.

Thursday Night Football features a high-profile NFC West showdown as the Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers. Kyren Williams is the Rams’ likely bellcow, with Christian McCaffrey carrying heavy workload for SF. The top anytime TD picks center Williams (-185) and Davante Adams (+115), with Marquez Valdes-Scantling a long shot (+1300). Purdy (toe) and Pearsall (knee) hover as injury risks that could boost Nacua’s target share in LA. The piece highlights sharp bets and promos across DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM, plus a +4300 parlay to chase big upside.